Most off-plan projects registered in Dubai this year sell close to their area's price. We looked at 74 projects registered by DLD in 2026, each with at least 20 home sales in the third quarter. The median sold at about 6% above the rest of its area per sq ft. Sixteen sat 20% or more above, and 23 sold below. The newest launches, registered in Q3 itself, were the closest of all, at a median 1.5% above.
The premium shows up in sales. The 16 projects priced 20% or more above their area were 22% of the group but took 15.2% of its Q3 sales. The median one recorded 47 sales in the quarter, against 52.5 for the other 58 projects. That is a quarter's sales, not a share of units sold, and we don't compute sell-through.
How the comparison works
Each project's figure is the median AED per sq ft of its registered off-plan home sales from July to September 2026. We set that against the median of every other registered home sale of the same type (apartment or villa) in the same DLD area over the same three months, ready and off-plan together. Offices and shops are left out. A project counts if it has at least 20 sales, its area has at least 50 other sales, and it makes up less than half of its area's sales. Of the 250 projects registered from January to September, 149 had sales in Q3 and 74 passed all three tests.
Where did 2026 launches price?
Table: 2026-registered projects by Q3 2026 median AED/sq ft against the rest of their DLD area, with the Q3 home sales recorded in each group (74 projects, 6,178 sales). Source: DLD registered sales and project register, Peak Trust Research.
| Price against the rest of the area | Projects | Share of projects | Q3 sales in these projects | Share of sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below | 23 | 31% | 2,013 | 32.6% |
| 0–5% above | 12 | 16% | 1,482 | 24.0% |
| 5–10% above | 11 | 15% | 629 | 10.2% |
| 10–20% above | 12 | 16% | 1,113 | 18.0% |
| 20% or more above | 16 | 22% | 941 | 15.2% |
The sales column shows where buyers spent in the quarter, not how quickly any project sold. Even so, 56.6% of the group's Q3 sales were in projects priced below their area or no more than 5% above it.
The premium was higher for flats. The 63 apartment projects had a median of 7.4% above their area, against 2.9% for the 11 villa and townhouse projects.
Are newer launches pricing tighter?
Table: median price against the rest of the area in Q3 2026, by the quarter in which DLD registered the project. Source: DLD registered sales and project register, Peak Trust Research.
| Registered in | Projects | Median vs rest of area | 20%+ above | Below | Q3 sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 40 | +6.7% | 11 | 15 | 2,473 |
| Q2 2026 | 21 | +10.0% | 3 | 3 | 2,334 |
| Q3 2026 | 13 | +1.5% | 2 | 5 | 1,371 |
The Q3 group is small, and these are its first weeks of sales. First releases are often priced lowest, so the premium for this group could widen as later phases come out. For now, the 13 projects registered between July and September did not open at a premium. Six of them sold within 5% of their area, above or below.
Table: projects registered by DLD in Q3 2026 with at least 20 Q3 home sales, against the rest of their DLD area. Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Project | Developer | Area (DLD) | Registered | Project AED/sq ft (n) | Rest of area AED/sq ft (n) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izel by Zoya | Zoya | Dubailand Residence Complex | 19 Aug | 1,749 (33) | 1,358 (1,049) | +28.9% |
| Samana South Haven | Samana | Dubai Industrial City | 21 Jul | 1,597 (94) | 1,322 (150) | +20.8% |
| Celesto Tower 3 | Tarrad | Dubailand Residence Complex | 15 Jul | 1,614 (21) | 1,358 (1,061) | +18.9% |
| Riverton House | Riverton House | Horizon (Sobha Hartland II) | 7 Jul | 2,713 (73) | 2,349 (192) | +15.5% |
| Arancia Yards 2 by Beyond | Beyond | City of Arabia | 14 Jul | 1,800 (184) | 1,703 (1,486) | +5.7% |
| Portside by Samana Developers | Samana | Downtown Jebel Ali | 6 Aug | 1,673 (39) | 1,596 (919) | +4.8% |
| Azizi Rose | Azizi | Downtown Jebel Ali | 23 Jul | 1,625 (41) | 1,600 (917) | +1.5% |
| RAW District 2 by Imtiaz | Imtiaz | Jebel Ali Industrial Second | 28 Jul | 1,742 (217) | 1,732 (1,048) | +0.6% |
| Golf Trails | Emaar | Dubai South (Madinat Al Mataar) | 9 Jul | 1,709 (90) | 1,725 (4,465) | −0.9% |
| Azizi Noura | Azizi | Jebel Ali Industrial Second | 15 Jul | 1,722 (177) | 1,742 (1,088) | −1.2% |
| Azizi Gabriel | Azizi | Jebel Ali Industrial Second | 22 Jul | 1,713 (165) | 1,738 (1,100) | −1.4% |
| Azizi Abraham | Azizi | Downtown Jebel Ali | 4 Aug | 1,548 (192) | 1,682 (766) | −8.0% |
| Binghatti Wraith | Binghatti | Sama Al Jadaf | 23 Jul | 1,856 (45) | 2,186 (198) | −15.1% |
All four of Azizi's Q3 launches sat between 1.5% above and 8% below their area.
Which areas price launches highest?
Table: 2026-registered projects by DLD area, where at least five projects qualified, Q3 2026. Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Area (DLD) | Projects | Median vs rest of area | Range | Priced above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Investment Park First | 16 | +1.3% | −15.8% to +31.0% | 9 |
| Dubailand Residence Complex | 7 | +10.9% | +6.1% to +28.9% | 7 |
| Dubai South (Madinat Al Mataar) | 7 | +8.9% | −10.6% to +27.7% | 4 |
| Downtown Jebel Ali | 6 | +3.2% | −30.3% to +13.6% | 4 |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 5 | +10.3% | −41.5% to +66.2% | 4 |
| Jebel Ali Industrial Second | 5 | −0.7% | −1.4% to +2.2% | 2 |
In Dubailand Residence Complex, every qualifying launch priced above the rest of the area, so new projects there are selling above the area's existing record. Jebel Ali Industrial Second is the opposite. Its five launches, from Imtiaz and Azizi, all sat within 2.2% of the area and of each other. Jumeirah Village Circle has the widest spread, from Serenz by Danube at 66% above to Iridian Park 2 by Object One at 42% below, two very different products in the same area.
What it means for developers
- In practice the premium band is narrow. Half of the 74 projects sat within 10% of their area, above or below. A launch priced 20% or more above puts you in roughly the top fifth, the group that took a smaller share of Q3 sales than its share of projects.
- Your benchmark is the rest of the area as buyers see it. Registered prices are public, and a buyer checking your price list against nearby registered sales is making this same comparison.
- New launches are opening close to their area. Q3's registrations priced a median 1.5% above. If your next release is well above that, expect buyers to look for the reason in the product, because the location is the same.
For pricing work on a specific launch, see Peak Trust for developers. The September view of the same measure is in the Off-Plan Monitor, September 2026, and every 2026 registration is listed in Launch Watch 2026. Market-wide prices are on /analytics.
Peak Trust advises developers and investors. Rankings use registered DLD data only.