Off-plan's share of Dubai's registered home sales rose to 78.7% in April and was 71.0% in September, against 68–70% in January and February. What changed was the size of the cheque. The median off-plan sale was AED 1.62 million in February. From May to August it stayed below AED 1.2 million, and in July it touched AED 1.03 million.
One caution on counts. Two record feeds overlap in our data until mid-March, so we don't compare sales counts across that line, or with 2025. Shares, medians and the mix hold up across all of 2026. Counts are comparable from April.
What happened to off-plan's share of the market?
Table: Dubai registered residential sales, January–September 2026. n = off-plan sales in our records, the sample behind each month's medians; January–March n mixes two record feeds and is not a like-for-like count. Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Month | Off-plan share | Off-plan median AED/sq ft | Ready median AED/sq ft | Off-plan median ticket (AED) | Off-plan n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 70.2% | 1,867 | 1,475 | 1,724,854 | 21,295 |
| Feb | 68.3% | 1,853 | 1,531 | 1,622,000 | 18,763 |
| Mar | 74.8% | 1,822 | 1,413 | 1,617,557 | 14,273 |
| Apr | 78.7% | 1,932 | 1,494 | 1,661,888 | 10,291 |
| May | 76.7% | 1,697 | 1,423 | 1,150,000 | 7,470 |
| Jun | 78.1% | 1,729 | 1,468 | 1,093,084 | 10,125 |
| Jul | 73.7% | 1,739 | 1,431 | 1,032,710 | 9,780 |
| Aug | 72.6% | 1,736 | 1,467 | 1,100,000 | 8,089 |
| Sep | 71.0% | 1,735 | 1,452 | 1,244,437 | 7,370 |
March and April look like a pause on the ready side: off-plan's share rose because ready sales fell further. Across the second quarter, off-plan was 77.9% of registered home sales.
Off-plan prices held up through the spring. April's median of AED 1,932 per sq ft was the highest of the year, pulled up by expensive schemes such as Lunaya (median sale AED 6.6 million) and The Meriva Collection on Dubai Islands. From June the share eased month by month, and by September it was within a point of January's.
When did the shift to smaller units start?
May, not March. The mix in March and April looked much like January's.
Table: unit type and price band as a share of Dubai registered off-plan sales, January–September 2026. Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Month | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | Villa/townhouse | Under AED 1m | AED 2m+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 19.7% | 36.3% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 21.7% | 43.5% |
| Feb | 24.0% | 34.1% | 22.2% | 9.3% | 21.1% | 40.9% |
| Mar | 22.1% | 36.6% | 22.7% | 10.8% | 22.3% | 38.8% |
| Apr | 19.7% | 39.7% | 23.0% | 7.7% | 21.8% | 40.0% |
| May | 34.9% | 35.7% | 16.6% | 5.5% | 42.4% | 25.4% |
| Jun | 41.8% | 32.1% | 14.3% | 5.1% | 46.0% | 22.5% |
| Jul | 43.2% | 31.8% | 13.9% | 4.5% | 48.5% | 19.6% |
| Aug | 40.4% | 32.5% | 15.0% | 5.2% | 44.4% | 21.9% |
| Sep | 31.4% | 36.2% | 16.9% | 6.7% | 37.2% | 27.5% |
Two developers' launches drove May. Azizi's Venice buildings in Dubai South started selling at volume, mostly studios; Azizi's sales that month had a median of AED 675,000. Binghatti's Skyflame towers in and around Majan did the same at about AED 550,000.
Azizi's share of off-plan sales went from 1.7% in April to 22.2% in May and 37.4% in June. By September it was down to 11.8%, and the studio share fell with it, to 31.4% from 43.2% in July.
Was it only one developer?
No. Azizi made the shift bigger, but smaller cheques spread well beyond one developer.
Table: off-plan sales excluding projects registered to or named for Azizi and Binghatti, Dubai, January–September 2026 (n = 5,078 to 18,924 a month). Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Month | Azizi share of all off-plan | Others: under AED 1m | Others: median ticket (AED m) | Others: median AED/sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2.7% | 17.8% | 1.89 | 1,860 |
| Feb | 3.1% | 19.6% | 1.77 | 1,820 |
| Mar | 1.3% | 20.8% | 1.67 | 1,772 |
| Apr | 1.7% | 21.0% | 1.70 | 1,928 |
| May | 22.2% | 28.5% | 1.50 | 1,764 |
| Jun | 37.4% | 26.8% | 1.52 | 1,746 |
| Jul | 35.6% | 31.1% | 1.35 | 1,761 |
| Aug | 30.5% | 26.8% | 1.36 | 1,750 |
| Sep | 11.8% | 27.4% | 1.44 | 1,772 |
Take out both developers and the share of sales under AED 1 million still went from about a fifth before May to 27–31% after it. The median ticket for everyone else was AED 1.67–1.89 million from January to April and AED 1.35–1.52 million from May to September.
Price per sq ft moved much less: AED 1,746–1,772 from May to September, against AED 1,772–1,860 from January to March. Buyers chose smaller homes. They did not get much cheaper ones per sq ft.
Other measures point the same way. In August 2026 the median off-plan home sold for AED 1,736 per sq ft, 7.8% below August 2025's AED 1,882. Ready homes went the other way, up 7.7% to AED 1,467. Emaar's founder said cancellations rose from an average of about 700 to about 1,000, then fell to about 550 (Khaleej Times).
How have volumes moved since April?
Table: registered off-plan home sales by month, April–September 2026, single record feed. Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Month | Off-plan sales | Of which Azizi |
|---|---|---|
| Apr | 10,291 | 171 |
| May | 7,470 | 1,659 |
| Jun | 10,125 | 3,790 |
| Jul | 9,780 | 3,478 |
| Aug | 8,089 | 2,467 |
| Sep | 7,370 | 873 |
September was the quietest of the six months, at 7,370 off-plan sales. Leave Azizi out, though, and September (6,497) was busier than any month from May to August (5,622 to 6,335). April, at about 10,100 without Azizi, is still the high point. So sales outside Azizi dropped after April and have only partly come back.
For the whole market, DLD recorded 84,090 off-plan sales of all property types from January to September (Emirates 24|7).
What it means for developers
- Treat May as the break, not March. The mix lasted through April, so a comparison of what changed should use January to April.
- The cheque shrank beyond the two big studio sellers. Without them, the median off-plan sale has been AED 1.35–1.52 million since May, against AED 1.67–1.89 million from January to April. Price lists built on Q1 tickets need checking against that.
- The risk is volume per project, not off-plan's share. A few low-ticket launches took a large part of the market this summer, so schemes aimed at the AED 1.5–2 million buyer have been competing for a smaller pool.
- September partly reversed the shift. Two-beds, villas and sales of AED 2 million or more all gained share, by more than in any month since April. One month is not a trend.
Peak Trust advises developers and investors. Rankings use registered DLD data only.
For a launch brief, see Peak Trust for developers. The latest week is in Dubai property, week 40 2026, and price trends by area are at /analytics/price-growth.