Dubai's off-plan sales fell 17.7% a week after the UAE base rate rose to 3.90% on 17 September. The rate rise doesn't explain it. Projects registered to or named for two developers, Azizi and Binghatti, lost more sales than the whole market did, as their summer launches slowed. Every other off-plan project sold 4.2% more a week than before, and purchase-mortgage registrations rose 8.9%.
The Central Bank of the UAE moved the day after the US Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%, the Fed's first rise since 2023. Fixed-rate borrowers keep their rate until the fixed period ends. Variable-rate loans reprice at their next review, so payments don't jump overnight (Gulf News).
What happened to off-plan sales after 17 September?
We compare the three full weeks from Monday 14 September with the four weeks before. The rise took effect on the Thursday of the first week, so that week holds three pre-rise days. The earlier window includes a quiet late-August week (1,340 off-plan sales). Leaving it out would make the fall look larger, not smaller.
Table: registered off-plan home sales by week, Dubai, 17 August–4 October 2026 (ISO weeks 34–40, Dubai time). Azizi and Binghatti = projects registered to or named for the developer. Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Week starting | Off-plan sales | Azizi | Binghatti | All other projects | Purchase-mortgage registrations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug | 2,176 | 703 | 222 | 1,251 | 461 |
| 24 Aug | 1,340 | 326 | 15 | 999 | 427 |
| 31 Aug | 1,907 | 305 | 349 | 1,253 | 516 |
| 7 Sep | 2,008 | 346 | 431 | 1,231 | 479 |
| 14 Sep (rise on 17th) | 1,466 | 71 | 195 | 1,200 | 576 |
| 21 Sep | 1,488 | 141 | 101 | 1,246 | 464 |
| 28 Sep | 1,632 | 169 | 208 | 1,255 | 498 |
Azizi's weekly sales fell from 420 to 127, across its Venice buildings in Dubai South and its Milan buildings in City of Arabia. Binghatti's fell from 254 to 168 as Skyflame in Majan and Skyterraces in Motor City slowed from their early-September pace.
Between them, the two lost 379 sales a week. The whole market lost 329. Everyone else sold slightly more.
Did buyers change what they bought?
Yes, and the median ticket went up, not down.
Table: Dubai registered off-plan and ready home sales, weekly averages and medians, 17 Aug–13 Sep 2026 (four weeks, 7,431 off-plan sales) vs 14 Sep–4 Oct 2026 (three weeks, 4,586 off-plan sales). Source: DLD registered sales, Peak Trust Research.
| Measure | 17 Aug–13 Sep | 14 Sep–4 Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off-plan sales a week | 1,858 | 1,529 | −17.7% |
| Of which Azizi | 420 | 127 | −69.8% |
| Of which Binghatti | 254 | 168 | −33.9% |
| Of which all other projects | 1,184 | 1,234 | +4.2% |
| Off-plan median ticket (AED) | 1,156,000 | 1,296,960 | +12.2% |
| Off-plan median AED/sq ft | 1,742 | 1,731 | −0.6% |
| Studio share of off-plan | 37.0% | 26.8% | −10.2 pts |
| Under AED 1m share of off-plan | 41.3% | 32.8% | −8.5 pts |
| AED 2m+ share of off-plan | 24.9% | 29.4% | +4.5 pts |
| Ready sales a week | 699 | 710 | +1.6% |
| Ready median AED/sq ft | 1,461 | 1,452 | −0.6% |
Studios fell from 37.0% of off-plan sales to 26.8%, and sales under AED 1 million from 41.3% to 32.8%. That is what you would expect when two studio-heavy sellers slow down. Sales of AED 2 million or more gained 4.5 points.
Prices per sq ft barely moved on either side of the market. Ready sales held at about 700 a week.
Did mortgage registrations fall?
No. Purchase-mortgage registrations on homes averaged 513 a week after the rise, against 471 before. The median registered loan was AED 1.2 million, against AED 1.24 million.
That doesn't prove higher rates don't matter. A mortgage registered in late September was often agreed weeks earlier, at the old pricing. Our records also don't tag a mortgage as off-plan or ready, so we can't tell how many were handover loans on off-plan homes. The weeks to watch are late October and November, when loans priced after 17 September start to register.
What it means for developers
- Read the dip by project. The 17.7% fall is real, but it sits in two developers' projects. Unless yours was one of the summer's big studio launches, the rest of the market sold slightly more after the rise.
- Rates bite at handover. Off-plan buyers pay instalments during the build, and the ones who need a bank loan at completion in late 2026 and 2027 will borrow at the new rate. Check how many of your handovers depend on bank finance.
- Don't price for a rate shock that hasn't shown up. The median off-plan price was AED 1,742 per sq ft before the rise and AED 1,731 after.
- Watch the next decision. The CBUAE has followed the Fed at every decision this year, and most Fed policymakers projected another rise in 2026 (Gulf News). Another rise would reach handover buyers first.
Peak Trust advises developers and investors. Rankings use registered DLD data only.
Briefing a launch or a handover plan? See Peak Trust for developers. For the longer view, read off-plan's share from March to September 2026. The latest week is in Dubai property, week 40 2026, and registered prices by area are at /analytics.