Dubai property in Q1 2025: fewer deals, bigger tickets

The first three months of 2025 were quieter than the three before them. We count 52,703 apartment and villa sales, 13.4% fewer than in the last quarter of 2024. That looks like a slowdown until you compare it with the same quarter a year earlier, when sales were 18.8% lower than this.

The size of the cheque changed more than the count. The median deal reached AED 1.5m, the highest of any quarter in 2025. Villas made up 13.4% of sales, also their biggest share of the year. Fewer homes changed hands, and the ones that did were larger and cost more.

Rents kept climbing. The median annual rent across Ejari contracts was AED 68,400, 11% higher than a year before.

The quarter in numbers

Sales were worth AED 121.6bn, 22.4% more than in the first quarter of 2024. Value grew faster than the count, which fits the bigger-ticket story.

The price per square foot barely moved. Our median was AED 1,600, up 1.2% on the quarter and 4.3% on the year. That 4.3% surprised us. Compare each district with itself and prices rose about 20% over the same twelve months. We think both numbers are right. They measure different things, which we explain below.

Over a longer stretch the chart looks steadier. The median was AED 1,332 in the first quarter of 2023, so it has risen about 20% in two years.

How we worked it out

We count residential sales of apartments and villas registered with the Dubai Land Department. Land plots, whole buildings and commercial units are left out. A few large plot deals would swamp the figures.

AED 121.6bn across 52,703 sales is an average of about AED 2.3m a deal. The median was AED 1.5m: line every sale up by price and it's the one in the middle. The gap comes from the top end. 1.8% of sales were above AED 10m, and a handful of those drags the average up, so we lead with medians.

"YoY" means year on year, this quarter against the same quarter last year. Seasonal patterns cancel out that way. "QoQ" compares with the previous quarter.

The price change is plain arithmetic. The median went from AED 1,581 per sq ft at the end of 2024 to AED 1,600, a rise of 1.2%.

A median of whatever sold also moves with the mix of what sold. If more buyers pick districts where a square foot costs less, the median can sit still even while each home gets dearer. That happened here. Wadi Al Safa 5 went from roughly 1,000 sales a year earlier to the second busiest district in Dubai, at a median of AED 1,344 per sq ft, well below the city figure. A district-by-district comparison isn't pulled around by that. Set each district's median against its own figure a year earlier, weight by this quarter's sales, and prices rose 20.4%: apartments 20.0% and villas 22.9%. Read the citywide median as what a typical buyer paid, and the district comparison as how much prices rose in a given place.

Totals that include every property type won't match ours. Counting land, buildings and commercial units too, the quarter had 60,480 sales worth AED 191.9bn.

What sold, and where

Off-plan homes were 64.7% of sales and 61.5% of value. That's 5 points more than a year earlier but below the 67.6% of the previous quarter, so ready homes won back a little ground. Off-plan sold at a median of AED 1,711 per sq ft against AED 1,375 for ready homes. Buyers paid about 24% more per foot for a home they would have to wait for.

The price bands show where the extra money went. 14.8% of sales fell between AED 3m and AED 5m, the highest share for that band in our records back to 2023.

One-bedroom flats were 42.3% of apartment sales and studios 23.8%. Two-bedroom units held 26.3%, more than in any later quarter of 2025.

Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) stayed the busiest district with 4,814 sales, though that was 8.8% fewer than a year before. Wadi Al Safa 5 finished 86 sales behind after a 361.7% jump. Dubai South grew 178.7% to 3,520 sales, 88.8% of them off-plan. Downtown Dubai went the other way: only 24% of its 1,639 sales were off-plan, at a median of AED 2,700 per sq ft.

What we noticed

Villas pulled ahead. They were 13.4% of our sales, and their median price was AED 1,416 per sq ft, 19.3% higher than a year before. The apartment median rose 3.4%.

Renewals reached 57.6% of Ejari contracts, the highest share in our records back to 2023. This was the quarter DLD launched the Smart Rental Index (2 January 2025), which rates each building on more than 60 criteria and ties permitted rent rises to that rating. We can't say the index made more tenants stay put. A tenant renewing under a cap still had good reason not to move into a market where the median rent was up 11%.

New tenants kept coming. Leases that weren't renewals numbered 84,682, 4.7% more than a year before, even with the median rent up 11%.

Rates didn't move. The Central Bank's base rate held at 4.40% all quarter. The 2024 cuts had already happened and the next one didn't come until September, so mortgage costs weren't the story.

At the top end, we count 97 home sales at or above AED 36.7m (US$10m), worth AED 6.45bn. That was a few fewer than the 110 of a year earlier.

For developers

• Price against the district, not the city. Wadi Al Safa 5 sold at AED 1,344 per sq ft and JVC at AED 1,400. A launch in either that asks well above that needs a reason buyers can see.
• Studios and one-beds still carry the volume, at 66.1% of apartment sales between them. Two-beds, at 26.3%, held up better this quarter than they did later in the year.
• Ready stock is the competition. Off-plan carried a premium of about 24% per sq ft over ready homes, and the payment plan and handover date have to justify it.
• January was slow: 15,782 sales against 18,594 in February. A launch in the quieter weeks needs a longer runway.

For investors

• Compare your entry price with the district median. Among the ten busiest districts, medians ran from AED 1,272 per sq ft in Jabal Ali First to AED 2,736 in Dubai Marina.
• Weigh rent now against payments later. A ready home earns rent from the first month. Off-plan spreads payments over the build but costs more per foot and earns nothing until handover.
• Check the rent rules before you count on rises. Increases for sitting tenants are capped on a scale of 0% to 20% under Decree No. 43 of 2013, now measured against the Smart Rental Index. Market rent rising 11% doesn't mean your tenant's rent will.
• Count all the costs. The 4% DLD transfer fee is paid up front, and service charges and empty months come straight off the gross yield.
• Think about the exit. Dubai Marina had 3,414 sales and plenty of ready resales. Selling there is a different job from selling in a district where nearly every deal is a new launch.

The next quarter brought the sharpest price rise of the year: read Q2 2025, or see current figures on /analytics.