Dubai property in Q2 2025: prices climb under a warning

In late May, Fitch Ratings said Dubai home prices could correct by up to 15% in the second half of 2025 or in 2026. Its case was supply: stock growing about 16% over 2025 to 2027 against population growth of about 5%, with some 210,000 units due in 2025 and 2026.

The warning landed in the strongest quarter for prices all year. Our median rose 4.0% to AED 1,665 per sq ft, the biggest quarterly rise of 2025 and the largest since the third quarter of 2023. Sales were worth AED 145.2bn, the highest quarterly value in our records up to then.

One thing looked odd. The average deal went up while the median deal went down. Both ends of the market got busier at the same time.

The numbers that moved

We count 60,750 sales, 15.3% more than in the first quarter and 17.6% more than a year earlier. Value rose 30.7% on the year, much faster than the count.

The trend line steepens here. The median went from AED 1,600 in the first quarter to AED 1,665, and was 7.3% higher than a year before. Off-plan homes did most of the lifting: their median rose from AED 1,711 to AED 1,800 per sq ft, while ready homes went from AED 1,375 to AED 1,405.

May was the peak, with 20,970 sales worth AED 52.3bn. June eased to 19,270.

How we worked it out

Our figures are residential sales of apartments and villas, as registered with DLD. We leave out land, whole buildings and commercial units, because a few large plot sales would outweigh thousands of flats.

AED 145.2bn across 60,750 sales is an average of about AED 2.39m a deal, up from about AED 2.31m in the first quarter. Yet the median deal, the one in the middle when every sale is lined up by price, fell from AED 1.5m to AED 1.39m.

An average and a median can move in opposite directions when both extremes grow. This quarter 2.2% of sales were above AED 10m, the highest share in our records up to then, and those deals push the average up. Meanwhile 65.1% of sales were below AED 2m, up from 62.2% in the first quarter, and more cheap deals pull the median down. The typical buyer spent a little less. The market as a whole spent a lot more.

The price change is plain arithmetic: AED 1,600 to AED 1,665 is a rise of 4.06%, which we round to 4.0%. "YoY" (year on year) compares this quarter with the same quarter of 2024, so seasonal swings drop out.

What sold, and where

Off-plan homes were 66.2% of sales and 64.9% of value. The gap between off-plan and ready prices widened. Off-plan sold at about 28% more per sq ft, up from about 24% in the first quarter.

Villas fell to 8.3% of sales from 13.4%. That fed into the median as well. Villas carry big price tags, so fewer of them is one more reason the median deal fell.

Studios and one-beds were 67.9% of apartment sales between them.

Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) took 6,596 sales on its own, 10.9% of the whole market. Two DLD districts joined the top ten. Me'Aisem First was up 219.8% at a median of AED 1,330 per sq ft, and Al Hebiah First was up 708.8%, with 87.6% of its sales off-plan.

At the other end, Dubai Marina sold at a median of AED 2,971 per sq ft, the highest in the table and up from AED 2,736 a quarter earlier. Dubai Hills Estate went backwards on volume, with sales 31.1% lower than a year before.

What we noticed

For now, the data disagreed with the warning. Set each district's median against its own earlier figure and prices rose 5% in the quarter and 23.6% on the year. On that basis apartments were up 24.4% on the year and villas 14.3%. Fitch was talking about supply arriving over the next two years, though, so one strong quarter doesn't settle the argument. Our later reviews show how 2025 ended.

The top end set records. We count 173 home sales at or above AED 36.7m (US$10m), worth AED 12.4bn, the most of any quarter in our records up to then. Apartments made up 119 of them and villas 54. That fits our 2.2% of sales above AED 10m.

Ready homes had a good quarter as well. We count 20,558 ready sales, the most of any quarter in our records up to then, alongside 40,192 off-plan.

Rent growth slowed. The median annual rent across Ejari contracts was AED 70,000, up 7.7% on the year, against 11% in the first quarter. Contracts fell to 171,705, from 205,304.

On 25 May, DLD launched MENA's first tokenised property project on the Prypco Mint platform, with tickets from AED 2,000. Next to AED 145.2bn of sales it's tiny. It is still a new way in for small buyers.

The Central Bank's base rate stayed at 4.40% throughout.

For developers

• Know where your price sits in the district. Al Hebiah First sold at AED 1,930 per sq ft and Me'Aisem First at AED 1,330. A new district can absorb a lot of stock quickly, but buyers compare prices across the road.
• Watch the off-plan premium. At about 28% over ready homes per sq ft, it was the widest of the first half. If it widens further, the payment plan has to work harder.
• Fitch's case is about handover years. Supply risk arrives when units complete, so projects due in 2026 and 2027 should plan for more finished stock nearby.
• Registration ties up capital early. DLD requires 30% (through construction, a bank guarantee or a cash deposit) before a project can be registered and sold off-plan, so phasing decides how much money sits idle.

For investors

• Separate the average from the typical. A higher average deal doesn't mean the home you're buying got dearer. Check the median for the district and unit type.
• Mind the off-plan premium. At about 28% per sq ft over ready homes, part of the price pays for time and a payment plan. Ask what a similar ready home in the same district costs.
• Track how fast rents are rising. The median of AED 70,000 was still up, but at 7.7% the pace had slowed. A yield sum built on 11% rent rises was already out of date.
• Liquidity varies by district. JVC and Business Bay each had thousands of sales. A newer district where nearly every sale is off-plan gives you much less resale evidence to price an exit on.

The summer didn't slow down: read Q3 2025, go back to Q1 2025, or see /analytics for current figures.