October 2024 registered 24,951 home sales. That was 3,176 more than the previous record, September's 21,775, in our records going back to January 2023. November and December then settled at around 18,000 each, and the quarter finished on 60,875 sales, 1% below the summer.
The bigger change was in price. For the first half of 2024 an off-plan home cost about 40% more per sq ft than a ready one. In the fourth quarter the gap was 28%.
If you're choosing between a finished flat now and a new one in two or three years, that gap is the number to watch.
The numbers
Sales were worth AED 131.2bn, 39.1% more than a year earlier, from 47.3% more deals. The median price was AED 1,581 per sq ft, up 2.6% on the third quarter and 5.9% on the fourth quarter of 2023. The median deal was AED 1.39m.
- Q1 20231,332
- Q2 20231,391
- Q3 20231,450
- Q4 20231,493
- Q1 20241,534
- Q2 20241,551
- Q3 20241,542
- Q4 20241,581
- Q1 20251,600
- Q2 20251,665
- Q3 20251,712
- Q4 20251,759
- Q1 20261,767
- Q2 20261,726
- Q3 20261,700
After the summer's small dip, the median turned up again. Underneath, the two halves of the market moved in opposite directions. Ready homes rose from AED 1,232 per sq ft in the third quarter to AED 1,311, while off-plan eased from AED 1,691 to AED 1,672.
Add up our four quarters and 2024 comes to 218,368 home sales worth AED 475.5bn. The same sum for 2023 gives 157,371 sales and AED 359.7bn: 38.8% more deals and 32.2% more value in a year.
How we worked it out
Our figures cover residential sales of apartments and villas registered with the Dubai Land Department. Land, commercial units and whole buildings aren't included.
AED 131.2bn divided by 60,875 sales is an average of about AED 2.16m a deal. The median deal, the middle one when every sale is ranked by price, was AED 1.39m. The average sits higher because the 1.5% of sales above AED 10m pull it up, which is why we use the median.
Year on year (YoY) means against the same quarter twelve months earlier: AED 1,493 per sq ft in the fourth quarter of 2023, AED 1,581 now, a rise of 5.9%.
The off-plan premium is a ratio. In the first quarter off-plan's median was AED 1,747 per sq ft and ready's AED 1,235. Divide one by the other and off-plan cost 41% more. Now it's AED 1,672 against AED 1,311, or 28% more.
Over those nine months ready rose 6.2% and off-plan fell 4.3%. Developers publish off-plan prices and don't negotiate them down. So the fall most likely reflects where launches were, with more of them in districts with lower prices per sq ft.
What sold, and where
- Under 1M30.9%
- 1–2M33.7%
- 2–3M17.2%
- 3–5M13.3%
- 5–10M3.4%
- 10M+1.5%
Off-plan was 67.6% of deals, 11.1 points more than a year earlier, and 64.5% of the value. Deals between AED 1m and AED 2m were the largest band at 33.7%, and 64.6% of all deals were under AED 2m.
- Studio21.8%
- 1 bed45.2%
- 2 bed25.7%
- 3 bed6.5%
- 4+ bed0.7%
One-bed flats reached 45.2% of apartment sales, their highest share of the year. Three-beds fell to 6.5% and four-plus to 0.7%. Villas were 12.9% of sales, and their median reached AED 1,416 per sq ft, 19.3% above the AED 1,187 of the first quarter.
| Area | Sales | YoY | Off-plan | AED/sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 5,965 | +12.3% | 68.2% | 1,329 |
| Wadi Al Safa 5 | 4,258 | +245.1% | 80.7% | 1,311 |
| Business Bay | 4,066 | +20.7% | 63.9% | 2,302 |
| Dubai South | 3,314 | +165.8% | 88.3% | 1,553 |
| Dubai Marina | 3,053 | +8.9% | 48.8% | 2,390 |
| Dubai Hills Estate | 2,480 | +9.2% | 77.9% | 2,280 |
| Jumeirah Lake Towers | 2,152 | +41.3% | 53.1% | 1,900 |
| Jabal Ali First | 2,062 | +88.8% | 65.4% | 1,261 |
| Al Barsha South Fifth | 1,904 | +167.8% | 91.8% | 1,432 |
| Bukadra | 1,873 | — | 100% | 2,390 |
Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) topped the table for the fourth quarter running, with 5,965 sales. Wadi Al Safa 5, a Dubailand district, came second with 4,258, up 245.1% on a year earlier and 80.7% off-plan. Al Barsha South Fifth entered at 1,904, 91.8% off-plan. Dubai Marina grew 8.9% to 3,053 at a median of AED 2,390 per sq ft.
Dubai South's median rose to AED 1,553 per sq ft from AED 1,318 a quarter earlier. Like most area medians, that mainly tells you which projects sold. The same homes didn't reprice by 18% in three months.
What we noticed
Fewer new homes were finished. The official project register shows 23,524 homes in projects completed in 2024, down from 35,977 in 2023. Fewer new homes arriving fits with ready prices rising faster than off-plan.
Villas had the strongest year. The villa median was 28.3% above the fourth quarter of 2023, against 3.5% for apartments at AED 1,633 per sq ft. At the top end, 99 homes sold for AED 36.7m (US$10m) or more in the quarter, about the same as the summer's 98 and up from 85 a year earlier.
The Central Bank cut twice more. After September's half-point cut, it took 25 basis points off on 8 November and again on 19 December. That left the base rate at 4.40%, a full point below where the year began.
Two long-range plans came out in the same quarter. On 29 October Dubai launched its Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, with targets that include 70% more transactions, an AED 1tn market and home ownership at 33%. On 19 December the RTA awarded the AED 20.5bn Dubai Metro Blue Line. It runs 30km with 14 stations, is due to open on 9 September 2029, and will serve areas including Dubai Creek Harbour, Mirdif, International City and Silicon Oasis.
October's record came before the strategy, which was published with the month almost over. We don't think one caused the other.
- Contracts registered
- 196,184
- Renewals
- 56%
- Median annual rent
- AED 68,000 (+13.3% YoY)
Rents rose fastest at the end of the year. Ejari registered 196,184 contracts, 56% of them renewals. The median annual rent was AED 68,000, 13.3% more than a year earlier and the biggest annual rise of the four quarters.
In December Dubai announced a Smart Rental Index, in force from 2 January 2025. It rates individual buildings instead of whole areas, so from January a landlord needs a better-rated building to justify a bigger rise.
For developers
- Expect buyers to compare you with ready stock. When off-plan cost 41% more per sq ft than ready, a payment plan covered a lot. At 28%, buyers will ask what the premium pays for, and the answer needs to be specific: location, specification, handover date.
- Mind the district you launch in. Wadi Al Safa 5 and Al Barsha South Fifth took a large share of off-plan volume this quarter. Projects handing over together in one district will compete for the same tenants and resale buyers.
- Date infrastructure claims precisely. The Blue Line is due in September 2029. Buyers can read the RTA's timetable, so marketing that hints at an earlier date will get caught.
- Build for the rating. Under the Smart Rental Index, a building's rating affects how much its landlords can raise rents. Build quality and maintenance now feed into the rent case investors make for your units.
For investors
- Re-run the ready versus off-plan sums. With the gap at 28%, a ready unit that earns rent from day one may compare better than it did in the spring. Count the rent you'd collect while an off-plan unit is still being built.
- Get rent evidence for the building, not the area. The Smart Rental Index rates buildings one by one, so two flats in the same community can have different room to raise rent.
- Budget all the costs. Plan on paying the 4% transfer fee yourself, plus service charges from the RERA service charge index for your building, plus the cost of a unit standing empty between tenants.
- Don't treat lower rates as a forecast. The base rate fell a full point in 2024, but your mortgage rate follows EIBOR plus the bank's margin, and rates can go back up.
The new year opened with a quieter January and higher prices: read Q1 2025, or go back to Q3 2024. For today's figures, see /analytics.
Residential sales (apartments and villas) registered with DLD. Land, whole-building and commercial deals excluded. Prices are medians in AED per sq ft.