Through the spring and summer of 2025, each quarter added thousands of sales. In the last quarter that stopped. We count 72,362 apartment and villa sales between October and December, only 0.6% more than in the summer.
The money kept growing anyway. Those sales were worth AED 164.5bn, 6.5% more than the quarter before and the highest quarterly value in our records up to then. December alone was worth AED 57.4bn, the biggest month by value in our records up to then.
For 2026, two smaller changes may matter more than the totals. Villas closed most of their price gap with apartments, and rents nearly stopped rising.
The numbers
Sales were 18.9% higher than a year earlier, and their value 25.3% higher. The median price was AED 1,759 per sq ft, up 2.7% on the quarter and 11.3% on the year.
- Q1 20231,332
- Q2 20231,391
- Q3 20231,450
- Q4 20231,493
- Q1 20241,534
- Q2 20241,551
- Q3 20241,542
- Q4 20241,581
- Q1 20251,600
- Q2 20251,665
- Q3 20251,712
- Q4 20251,759
- Q1 20261,767
- Q2 20261,726
- Q3 20261,700
Across 2025 the median rose from AED 1,600 to AED 1,759 per sq ft, about 9.9% from the first quarter to the last. Our four quarters add up to 257,712 residential sales worth AED 585.8bn for the year, 18.0% more sales and 23.2% more value than our 2024 total.
- Oct24,520
- Nov23,679
- Dec24,163
The three months were close: 24,520 sales in October, 23,679 in November and 24,163 in December. Value rose each month, from AED 53bn to AED 57.4bn.
How we worked it out
These are residential sales only: apartments and villas registered with DLD. Land plots, whole buildings and commercial units are excluded. That's why our value is lower than the AED 187.47bn of sales Gulf News reported from DLD data for all property types.
AED 164.5bn across 72,362 sales is an average of about AED 2.27m a deal. The median deal, the middle one when every sale is ranked by price, was AED 1.43m, up from about AED 1.36m in the summer. The average sits higher because the 1.7% of sales above AED 10m pull it up. The median ignores how big the biggest deals are.
With the count flat and value up 6.5%, the average deal had to grow. More of the money went into larger homes. Sales between AED 3m and AED 5m rose to 13.1% of the total, from 10.3%, and villas went back up to 8.8% of sales from 6%.
"YoY" (year on year) compares October to December 2025 with the same months of 2024. The median went from AED 1,581 to AED 1,759 per sq ft over those twelve months, a rise of 11.3%.
What sold, and where
- Under 1M28.4%
- 1–2M37%
- 2–3M15.6%
- 3–5M13.1%
- 5–10M4.2%
- 10M+1.7%
Off-plan eased to 71.9% of sales, from 74.1% in the summer, and 70.2% of value. Ready homes had a better quarter. Their median rose 5.7% to AED 1,440 per sq ft, while off-plan barely moved at AED 1,852. The premium for buying off-plan shrank to about 29% per sq ft, from about 36%.
The villa figures caught our eye. The median villa price rose to AED 1,669 per sq ft from AED 1,430, against AED 1,775 for apartments, so the gap between the two narrowed from AED 314 per sq ft to AED 106. Some of that is mix, because a quarter's villa sales can lean towards one big launch or another. Compare each district with itself, though, and villas still rose 14% on the quarter, so mix explains only part of the 16.7%. On the year, villas were up 21.1% on that basis and apartments 21.7%.
- Studio27%
- 1 bed43.7%
- 2 bed23.2%
- 3 bed5.3%
- 4+ bed0.8%
Studios rose to 27% of apartment sales, their highest share in our records up to then.
| Area | Sales | YoY | Off-plan | AED/sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle | 6,211 | +4.1% | 67.8% | 1,544 |
| Business Bay | 4,250 | +4.5% | 66.3% | 2,582 |
| Wadi Al Safa 5 | 4,084 | -4.1% | 87.6% | 1,485 |
| Dubai Investment Park Second | 3,435 | +146.9% | 98.3% | 1,544 |
| Dubai South | 3,390 | +2.3% | 82.9% | 1,503 |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 3,169 | +274.1% | 84.5% | 1,616 |
| Al Barsha South Fifth | 3,124 | +64.1% | 89.8% | 1,660 |
| Jabal Ali First | 2,899 | +40.6% | 79.6% | 1,671 |
| Dubai Maritime City | 2,625 | +116.9% | 98.6% | 3,150 |
| Al Barshaa South Second | 2,460 | +110.3% | 96.5% | 1,749 |
Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) was still the busiest district, with 6,211 sales at a median of AED 1,544 per sq ft, but its growth had slowed to 4.1% on the year. Newer districts grew faster. Wadi Al Safa 3 was up 274.1% and Dubai Investment Park Second up 146.9%. Dubai Maritime City more than doubled, up 116.9% to 2,625 sales, almost all off-plan, at AED 3,150 per sq ft, the highest median in the table. In Jabal Ali First the median climbed to AED 1,671 from AED 1,526 in the summer.
What we noticed
Rents ran out of steam. The median annual rent across Ejari contracts was AED 70,000, down from AED 72,600 in the summer and only 2.9% above a year earlier. That's the slowest annual growth in our records from 2023 to 2025, and it started the year at 11%. Contracts reached 223,873, the most of any 2025 quarter, while renewals fell to 52.6%. More tenants signed new leases, and a new lease didn't cost them much more.
Supply came in short. In May the fear was a flood of completions. Project records show 31,324 homes in projects completed during 2025, 20,117 of them in the last quarter. Another 25,800 homes in projects due to finish in 2025 were still not complete in those records in October 2026. Fewer homes arrived than were scheduled. The larger 2026 pipeline is still to come.
Rates fell twice more. After the September cut, the Central Bank took its base rate to 3.90% from 30 October and to 3.65% from 11 December. The three cuts of 2025 added up to 75 basis points. They came late, so they eased mortgage costs at the end of the year rather than driving the sales that came before.
Big launches still sold. DAMAC launched DAMAC Islands 2 in November, and Gulf News reported AED 11bn of sales within five hours. We count 135 home sales at or above AED 36.7m (US$10m) in the quarter, 21.6% more than the 111 in the summer.
DLD's own headline for the year was AED 917bn of real estate transactions, up 20%. That figure includes mortgages and gifts as well as sales, so it measures something different from ours.
For developers
- Sales volume has stopped growing. With the count flat on the quarter, a new launch shares a steady pool of buyers with everyone else, so price it for that.
- Ready stock is getting closer. The off-plan premium narrowed to about 29% per sq ft, and as more finished homes reach the market, buyers will compare the two more closely.
- Watch rent evidence. Off-plan buyers who plan to let the unit will look at rents, and growth of 2.9% gives them much less to work with than the double-digit rises of 2024.
- Studios are 27% of apartment sales. Demand at the small end is deep, and so is competition. A studio in a district full of studios has to win on layout and service charges.
For investors
- Use 2025's rent figures, not 2024's. A median rent up 2.9% on the year changes the yield sums. Base any plan on the rent a similar unit gets today in that building.
- Ready homes deserve a look again. Their median rose 5.7% in the quarter. A ready home earns rent from day one and has a resale record you can check.
- Mortgage costs have eased a little. The base rate fell 75 basis points across the year, but what you pay depends on your bank's margin over EIBOR. Get a quote before assuming the cuts reach you in full.
- Know your exit. In Dubai Maritime City nearly every sale was off-plan. When those homes are handed over, many owners will want to sell or let at the same time.
For what came next, see /analytics for current figures, or go back to Q3 2025. If you're planning a launch or a purchase, see our pages for developers and investors.
Residential sales (apartments and villas) registered with DLD. Land, whole-building and commercial deals excluded. Prices are medians in AED per sq ft.