Dubai property in Q1 2026: a record start, then a sharp March

January 2026 was a record month for Dubai property. The Dubai Media Office put the month's real estate transactions at AED 111bn, 88% more than January 2025. February and March together added AED 141bn, which took the quarter to AED 252bn.

March broke that run. Sales fell hard.

Read as one number, Q1 looks like a strong quarter. Read month by month, it is a record run that stopped suddenly. The second reading is the one that matters.

The quarter in figures

The Dubai Land Department reported AED 252bn of real estate transactions for the quarter, 31% more than a year earlier, from 60,303 transactions. That figure includes mortgages and gifts as well as sales. Of the total, DLD counted 57,744 investment transactions worth AED 173bn, 7% more in number and 22% more in value than a year before.

A word on our own records. Our 2026 sales data arrives through a changed feed and is incomplete, so we don't present our counts or values as market totals. We use them for medians, shares and rankings, and take totals from DLD's published figures above.

Our median price was AED 1,767 per sq ft. That is 10.4% above Q1 2025, but only 0.5% above Q4 2025, so growth had almost stalled before March. Month by month, our median eased from AED 1,793 per sq ft in January to AED 1,767 in February and AED 1,731 in March, a fall of 2.0% in March alone.

How we worked it out

Start with the months. DLD put January at AED 111bn and the whole quarter at AED 252bn, so February and March together came to AED 141bn. That is about AED 70bn a month, well below January's pace.

Treat that split as a rough guide. Both figures cover every kind of transaction, including mortgages, gifts, land and commercial deals, and DLD did not publish February and March separately.

January alone was 44% of the quarter's value. Most of the deals behind the quarterly median were signed in January and February, which is why the median barely registers March.

Our monthly records show the same drop, but they overstate it. One of our two record feeds stopped in mid-February, so for the size of the fall we rely on DLD's published figures.

Now median versus average. Line every sale up from cheapest to dearest and the median is the one in the middle. The average adds up every sale and divides by the number of deals. In our records the average Q1 sale was about AED 2.5m, while the median deal was about AED 1.6m. The difference is the top end. Sales of AED 10m and above were 2.2% of our recorded deals but 20.1% of their value, and deals that size drag an average well above what a typical buyer paid.

Year on year (YoY) means against the same quarter twelve months earlier. Our median went from AED 1,600 per sq ft in Q1 2025 to AED 1,767, which is the 10.4% in the panel.

What we count: residential sales of apartments and villas. Land, whole buildings and commercial units are left out, and prices are medians per sq ft.

What sold, and where

Off-plan was 70.6% of the sales in our records, 5.9 points more than a year earlier. Off-plan sold at a median AED 1,849 per sq ft, ready homes at AED 1,484.

The top end was busy. Deals of AED 5m and above made up 7.5% of our Q1 records, level with the high in our series, set in mid-2023.

One-bedroom flats were still the largest group, at 41.9% of apartment sales. Two-bedrooms rose to 25.8%, from 23.2% in Q4 2025. Studios took 25.4%.

Combine the two registry spellings of Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) and it tops the table, with about 6.2% of our recorded sales, roughly 62% of them off-plan. Dubai South is close behind at 5.8%: 90.4% off-plan, at AED 1,533 per sq ft. Lower down, Dubai Islands was entirely off-plan at AED 2,778 per sq ft, Dubai Creek Harbour sold at AED 2,588, and Al Yelayiss 1 was 98.5% off-plan.

What we noticed

Volume moved before price. Goldman Sachs estimated that UAE transaction volumes in the first 12 days of March were 37% below a year earlier, while the median price was only 3% lower. That fits how Dubai off-plan is sold. Developers publish price lists, so when demand drops, the first thing to give is the number of deals.

Ready buyers pulled back harder. Ready homes were 25.2% of March sales in our records, down from 31.7% in February. Plenty of March's off-plan registrations were contracts agreed earlier, which kept that side moving.

The top end carried a lot of the quarter. Sales of AED 10m and above made up 20.1% of the value in our records, up from 16.9% in Q1 2025.

Price growth was already slowing. Our median was still 10.4% up on a year earlier, but it gained only 0.5% on Q4. March hit a market that was already levelling off.

Interest rates weren't the trigger. The UAE Central Bank held its base rate at 3.65% at its first decision of 2026.

For developers

• Keep launch dates movable. Projects that opened in January and February met record demand, and March showed how fast that can change. Leave room in the plan to shift a launch by a few weeks.
• Price against the area's recorded level. Off-plan in Dubai South sold at a median AED 1,533 per sq ft in our records. A launch well above its neighbours needs a reason buyers can see on the plan.
• Lean the mix towards one- and two-bedroom units. Together they were about two-thirds of apartment sales this quarter, and a scheme that strays far from them takes on more absorption risk.
• Keep early buyers informed. People who signed in January will watch construction closely after March, and regular, specific site updates will reassure them more than a campaign will.

For investors

• Compare the entry price with the area. Off-plan in our records sold at AED 1,849 per sq ft and ready homes at AED 1,484. That gap of about 25% pays for newer stock, a payment plan and the wait for handover.
• Use rent evidence you can check. The median residential rent in our Ejari records was AED 68,000 a year in Q1, 0.6% below Q1 2025. Registered contracts in the building you are looking at tell you more than any average.
• Plan the equity. Off-plan can be mortgaged, but the Central Bank caps the loan at 50% of the price, so at least half of the purchase is your own money.
• Think about the exit. In March, ready resale volume fell much faster than off-plan registrations. How easily you can sell is part of what you are paying for.
• Count the full cost. Allow for the 4% transfer fee and service charges before you call any figure a yield.

Previous: Q4 2025. Next: Q2 2026, when activity reset. For current figures, see /analytics.