Dubai property in Q3 2026: prices level off, rates turn up

In August and September, our median home price sat 1.8% below its level of a year earlier. Across the quarter it was 0.7% lower, the first quarter in our series, which starts in 2023, to finish below the year before. The fall was small. Then, on 17 September, the UAE Central Bank raised its base rate for the first time since 2023.

Those two facts frame the third quarter. Prices had dipped in the spring. By summer the monthly falls had shrunk to almost nothing. The number of sales stayed close to Q2, though their value fell, and in the last fortnight of the quarter borrowing got a little dearer.

Prices didn't bounce back this quarter, and they slid only a little further.

The quarter at a glance

For the first nine months, Emirates 24/7, citing DLD figures, reported AED 379.4bn of sales across 123,416 deals, the second-highest nine-month total on record after 2025. Those include land and whole buildings.

For homes alone, our records hold 34,800 residential sales registered with DLD in Q3, worth AED 62.5bn. That is 2.8% fewer sales than in Q2 and 18.8% less value, so the number of deals held up while their size fell.

Our 2026 sales records come through a changed feed, so we compare their counts only within 2026 and never with earlier years. Medians, shares and rankings are comparable across years.

Our median was AED 1,700 per sq ft, about 1.5% below Q2 and 0.7% below Q3 2025. Month by month, our median went from AED 1,711 per sq ft in July to AED 1,702 in August and AED 1,679 in September. July was 0.6% above a year earlier. August and September were both 1.8% below. September's median was 5.0% below February's.

How we worked it out

Start with DLD's sales totals, as reported by Emirates 24/7. The first nine months came to AED 379.4bn across 123,416 deals, and the first half to AED 286.44bn across about 86,000. Subtract one from the other and Q3 comes to about AED 93.0bn across roughly 37,400 deals. Both totals include land and buildings, which is why they sit well above any homes-only number.

For homes alone, our Q3 records give an average of about AED 1.8m a sale and a median deal of about AED 1.15m. The average adds every sale together and divides by the count, so a few expensive homes lift it. The median is the middle sale once they are lined up by price, which makes it the better guide to a typical purchase.

The price change: our median went from AED 1,726 per sq ft in Q2 to AED 1,700 in Q3. Year on year (YoY), against the same quarter of 2025, it went from AED 1,712 to AED 1,700, 0.7% lower.

And the rate rise in plain numbers. An extra 0.25 points on a AED 1m variable-rate loan adds about AED 2,500 a year in interest, if the bank passes it on in full. Mortgage rates follow EIBOR plus each bank's margin, so the effect on any one loan will vary.

What we count: residential sales of apartments and villas. Land, whole buildings and commercial units are left out.

July was the busiest month in our records, with 13,272 sales. August had 11,142, 16% fewer, which is the usual summer dip, and September 10,386.

What sold, and where

Off-plan was 72.5% of the sales in our records, 1.6 points less than a year earlier and 5.4 points less than in Q2. Off-plan sold at a median AED 1,738 per sq ft and ready homes at AED 1,449.

Deal size changed most. Sales under AED 1m were 42.3% of our records, the highest share in our series, which starts in 2023.

Studios took 37.4% of apartment sales, almost level with one-bedrooms at 38.0%. That studio share is also a high for our series.

Dubai South led our table again, with 13.8% of sales, almost all off-plan, at AED 1,720 per sq ft. JVC (Jumeirah Village Circle) came second with 7.2%, split roughly evenly between off-plan and ready, at AED 1,425. Business Bay moved the most. Only 35.5% of its sales were off-plan, down from 56.2% in Q2, and its median was AED 2,150 per sq ft. It was second only to Dubai South by sales value in our Q3 records, at about AED 4.5bn. City of Arabia and Jabal Ali Industrial Second, both almost entirely off-plan, entered our top five.

What we noticed

Off-plan cooled while ready sales picked up. Off-plan sales in our records fell 9.5% on Q2, to 25,239, and the off-plan median slipped 1.9% to AED 1,738 per sq ft. Ready sales rose 21.0%, to 9,561.

The ready-market recovery that started in June held. Ready sales in our records rose 22.8% from June to July.

Apartments drifted lower. The apartment median was AED 1,708 per sq ft (n = 32,195), 2.1% below Q3 2025.

The pipeline looks heavy on paper. In early October, DLD's project register still listed 265 projects, with about 85,000 homes, due to finish in 2026 but not yet complete. Their median progress was 51%. Schedules like that slip, so not all of those homes will arrive this year. Even so, Q4 will add a lot of stock.

Rates turned. The US Federal Reserve raised its range by 0.25 points to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, and the UAE Central Bank followed the next day, taking its base rate from 3.65% to 3.90%. The Fed's projections point to one more rise this year. The change came in the quarter's last two weeks, so Q3's sales figures barely show it.

For developers

• Price launches against what the area records. Dubai South sold at a median AED 1,720 per sq ft and JVC at AED 1,425 in our records. Buyers can look these figures up, and plenty do.
• Build for the ticket size that is selling. Deals under AED 1m were 42% of our records, and studios and one-bedrooms made up three-quarters of apartment sales.
• Cost incentives properly. On our Q3 median deal of about AED 1.15m, paying the buyer's 4% DLD fee comes to about AED 46,000. That belongs in the feasibility study as a cost.
• Prepare buyers for completion finance. Anyone planning to mortgage at handover now faces a higher base rate, and an early conversation about financing saves surprises later.
• Watch the Q4 calendar. With tens of thousands of homes scheduled for delivery, a launch next to a crowded handover may be chasing the same buyer as the ready stock.

For investors

• Stress-test the loan. Add the September rise to any mortgage plan, then check what one more would do. On a AED 1m loan, each 0.25 points costs about AED 2,500 a year.
• Know where entry prices sit. Our September median was 5.0% below February's. That describes today's level. It says nothing about where prices go next.
• Check rent against new supply. The median rent in our records was AED 70,000, 3.6% below a year earlier, and the Q4 pipeline is large. Look at registered contracts in the building rather than asking rents.
• Compare ready and off-plan like for like. Ready homes sold at AED 1,449 per sq ft and off-plan at AED 1,738, a gap of about 20%. Add up the total cost of each, including fees, the payment plan and the months before rent starts.

Previous: Q2 2026. For the latest figures, see /analytics. If you are weighing a purchase, our investor page sets out what we offer.